An integrated risk assessment method for industrial control system security

WANG Hongmin; HAN Shaoyun; WEI Qiang; SONG Sijing

doi:10.11959/j.issn.2096-3750.2025.00412

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An integrated risk assessment method for industrial control system security

Theory and Technology | 更新时间：2025-09-12

- An integrated risk assessment method for industrial control system security
- Chinese Journal on Internet of Things Vol. 9, Issue 2, Pages: 139-151(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.信息工程大学，河南郑州 450001
  2.河南工程学院，河南郑州 450001
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  The National Key Research and Development Program of China(2020YFB2010902)
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.2096-3750.2025.00412
  CLC： TN929.5
- Received：19 September 2024，
  
  Revised：2024-10-27，
  
  Published：10 June 2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
王红敏,韩少云,魏强等.工业控制系统安全一体化风险评估方法[J].物联网学报,2025,09(02):139-151.

WANG Hongmin,HAN Shaoyun,WEI Qiang,et al.An integrated risk assessment method for industrial control system security[J].Chinese Journal on Internet of Things,2025,09(02):139-151.
王红敏,韩少云,魏强等.工业控制系统安全一体化风险评估方法[J].物联网学报,2025,09(02):139-151. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.2096-3750.2025.00412.

WANG Hongmin,HAN Shaoyun,WEI Qiang,et al.An integrated risk assessment method for industrial control system security[J].Chinese Journal on Internet of Things,2025,09(02):139-151. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.2096-3750.2025.00412.

摘要

工业控制系统（ICS

industrial control system）关乎国家关键基础设施的正常运行，随着系统开放度的增大，工业控制系统面临信息域和物理域的双重风险，过去只对功能安全或信息安全某一方面进行风险评估已不再适用，因此，提出了对工业控制系统安全一体化的风险评估方法。在安全一体化风险量化评估过程中，风险传播路径分析、风险传播路径可能性计算和安全风险损失值量化是影响评估准确性的关键要素。首先，该方法结合Petri Net与蝴蝶结模型（bow-tie）各自的优势，分析了信息安全风险传播路径、功能安全风险传播路径和风险跨域传播路径。然后，运用专家知识、三角模糊数和质心公式计算功能安全风险传播的可能性，并基于漏洞评分系统和修正函数计算信息安全风险传播的可能性。最后，基于质量因子的思想给出关键事件损失量化模型。通过定量评估关键事件的风险值，能进一步在化工厂仿真环境中验证所提方法的有效性。

Abstract

Industrial control system (ICS) is related to the normal operation of national key infrastructure. With the increase of system openness

industrial control systems are facing dual risks in the cyber domain and the physical domain. It was no longer applicable to only conduct risk assessment on one aspect of safety or security. A risk assessment method for the security integration of industrial control systems was proposed to address this. In the process of quantitative risk assessment for security integration

risk propagation path analysis

calculation of the likelihood of risk propagation paths

and quantification of the loss value of security risks are the key elements that affect the accuracy of the assessment. Firstly

the method combined the respective advantages of Petri Net and the bow-tie model to analyze both security risk propagation paths

safety risk propagation paths

and risk cross-domain propagation paths. Then

the expert knowledge

trigonometric fuzzy number and centroid formula was used to calculate the possibility of safety risk propagation

and the probability of information security risk propagation was calculated based on the vulnerability scoring system and correction function. Finally

based on the idea of mass factor

a quantitative model of key event loss was given. By quantitatively assessing the risk value of critical events

the effectiveness of the proposed methodology can be further validated in a chemical plant simulation environment.

关键词

Keywords

references

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